In Japan’s October 27 election, the ruling coalition—led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner, Komeito—suffered a significant loss. The LDP’s seats dropped from 256 to 191, while Komeito’s fell from 32 to 24, leaving them without a majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives. This unexpected result has unsettled Japan’s political landscape, as the LDP has dominated Japanese politics for decades but is now struggling to maintain public support.
The decline in popularity began after former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stepped down in 2020 due to health issues and was assassinated in 2022. Although his death garnered sympathy, Abe’s successor, Fumio Kishida, quickly faced challenges. Kishida’s leadership was marred by controversies, including the LDP’s alleged connections to the Korean Unification Church and a scandal involving campaign fundraising, which led to his resignation earlier this year. This opened the door for Shigeru Ishiba, a former Defense Minister and seasoned LDP leader, who assumed the party leadership on October 1.
Japan faces long-term issues like a sluggish economy and an ageing population, adding to the LDP’s troubles. Now, Ishiba is trying to gather enough parliamentary support before the Diet (Japan’s parliament) reconvenes, but success is far from certain. Meanwhile, the opposition, led by the left-of-centre Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), gained ground by increasing its seats from 98 to 148. The CDP hopes to build an alliance with other coalition partners and independents to challenge Ishiba and potentially form a new government.
Even if Ishiba manages to hold onto power, Japan’s political instability could have broader impacts. Japan often plays a balancing role in global politics, especially in its alliance with the U.S., which faces a turbulent election season. Japan’s strategic rivals—China, Russia, and North Korea—are likely to monitor this instability closely, particularly as Ishiba has proposed the idea of an “Asian NATO,” a regional defence alliance.
India, one of Japan’s key partners, may also feel the effects of Japan’s political changes. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Japan for a major summit soon, but with Japan’s government in flux, this could be delayed. If postponed, this may slow down key joint projects, including the Shinkansen bullet train, as well as various initiatives in the Indo-Pacific and across Asia and Africa. However, both countries share a strong commitment to their relationship, so these projects will likely continue once Japan’s political situation stabilizes.
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