Paradigm Shift. Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime. The Hindu Editorial Explanation 10th December 2024.

This article talks about the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the rise of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is now the most powerful force in the country.

Eight years ago, it seemed like Assad was winning the civil war. With help from countries like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, Assad regained control over most of Syria. There was a fragile peace in parts of the country, with militants mostly trapped in the northwestern region of Idlib. In the southeast, the Kurds were left with some autonomy but had made peace with Assad.

Syria was re-admitted into the Arab League, and even countries that once opposed Assad started to support him again. But despite these appearances, Assad’s victory was weak. His military was in bad shape after years of fighting, and his government was struggling due to heavy sanctions. The country was still deeply affected by the civil war, and Assad relied on foreign allies for security. To control opposition, he increased his repression, leading to more division in the society.

However, Assad’s downfall, which happened quickly on December 8, was influenced by things beyond his control. In 2023, when the Israel-Hamas war started, Israel began bombing targets in Syria. This weakened Assad’s forces. Also, the war between Israel and Hezbollah took a toll on Hezbollah’s ability to help Assad. Iran, which had been supporting Assad, also reduced its presence after losing soldiers in Syria.

Russia, which had been a strong ally, was distracted by the war in Ukraine. With Assad’s main supporters weakened, HTS, backed by Turkey, saw an opportunity and took it. In just 12 days, HTS and other militias quickly took control of Damascus as Assad’s army fell apart.

Now that Assad is gone, Syria faces an uncertain future. HTS wants to turn Syria into an Islamic state, while other groups like the Syrian National Army (which works with Turkey) have their own agendas. In the south, there are many local militias with different goals. There’s a chance for a peaceful government to form, but this would require disarming the militias and creating a government that includes all parts of Syrian society.

However, due to Syria’s complicated history, the deep divisions in society, and the radical ideas of the militias, it’s more likely that Syria will continue to face instability and chaos, similar to what happened in Afghanistan after the fall of communism or in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi. This is the tragedy of Syria.

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