In June, French President Emmanuel Macron called an early election with two main objectives: to gain a fresh mandate for his centrist coalition and to curb the growing influence of the far-right National Rally, which had just topped the European elections. However, the results didn’t go as he had hoped. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) became the largest group in Parliament, leaving no party with a clear majority.
To form a government, Macron chose Michel Barnier, a conservative leader from the Republican Party, which had finished fourth in the election. This move was risky and, as expected, failed.
The government collapsed within just three months, leaving France without a budget for 2025. Despite this setback, Macron appointed François Bayrou, leader of a small centrist party, as the new Prime Minister. However, Bayrou’s party only has 33 seats in the 577-seat Parliament, making it nearly impossible to push through any legislation.
Even if Macron’s coalition and the Republicans join forces, they still won’t have enough seats to pass laws. The Socialist Party, part of the left-wing alliance, has already stated it won’t support the new government. This means Bayrou’s government would be forced to rely on the far-right National Rally for survival, just like Barnier’s government was.
Meanwhile, France is facing serious economic challenges. Unemployment is rising, and domestic spending is dropping. The country’s budget deficit has reached 6.1% of GDP, worse than several countries hit hard by the 2008 financial crisis. France’s national debt has ballooned to €3.2 trillion, more than 112% of its GDP. These problems urgently need attention, but the lack of a stable government is making it hard to find solutions.
Bayrou’s immediate task is to pass an emergency budget to ensure that essential services can continue. However, this will involve tough negotiations, especially with the far-right, which is opposed to cutting social spending. This situation means France is stuck, struggling with both political instability and a difficult economy.
A major part of the problem is Macron’s failure to adapt to the changing political landscape. As more people turn to anti-establishment parties because of the economic hardship, the far-right and left-wing groups are both trying to appeal to working-class voters.
But Macron is focused on maintaining the status quo, appointing leaders who aren’t popular and don’t have a clear mandate. This only prolongs the crisis. If he truly wanted stability, he should have worked with the left-wing party, the largest in Parliament, to build a government that could unite the country.
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