India experiences two main monsoons, and both play a vital role in the country’s weather and economy. The southwest monsoon is the primary rainy season, which just ended with 8% more rainfall than expected. This excess rain is considered good news for the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) did a good job predicting the rainfall since July. Even though some monsoon clouds remain, attention is shifting to the next rainy season, the northeast monsoon.
The northeast monsoon starts after the southwest monsoon ends, around mid-October. It occurs when the winds reverse direction, bringing rain to regions like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and southern Karnataka. For Tamil Nadu, this is the most important rainy season, as it provides the majority of the state’s yearly rain. However, overall, the northeast monsoon only contributes about 11% of India’s total rainfall, which is much less than the southwest monsoon.
Despite bringing less rain, the northeast monsoon is essential for growing crops such as rice and maize, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. In years when the monsoon is weak, farmers in these areas face challenges, and agricultural production suffers. On the other hand, when the northeast monsoon brings heavy rains, it can boost crop yields.
This year, the IMD predicts that the northeast monsoon will bring 12% more rainfall than the historical average, which is good news for the region. However, this monsoon can be unpredictable—there are years of floods followed by years of drought. For instance, in 2015, Chennai experienced heavy floods due to excessive rain, while in 2019, the city struggled with a severe water shortage.
One factor that might influence the monsoon this year is La Niña, a climate pattern that cools the Pacific Ocean and often brings more rain to India. However, predicting when La Niña will happen has been difficult this year. With climate change adding uncertainty to weather patterns, there is a need to improve forecasts and better prepare for urban flooding. States must also develop strong disaster management plans and ensure they have the resources to deal with such challenges.
In conclusion, while the northeast monsoon is less talked about compared to the southwest monsoon, it remains crucial for certain parts of India, especially in terms of agriculture. As climate patterns become more unpredictable, better forecasting and preparation are essential to manage the impact of this important monsoon season.
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