In January 2025, Donald Trump will begin his second term as the President of the United States. His return to office has generated a mix of curiosity and unease worldwide.
For South Asia, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring a sense of continuity in U.S.-India relations, even as his leadership style and decision-making could introduce new challenges. Trump’s policies are likely to focus on strengthening ties with India while addressing broader regional issues with an emphasis on countering China.
The relationship between India and the United States has steadily improved since the early 2000s, with both nations building a strong strategic partnership. In 2009, the U.S. recognized India as a regional security leader, calling it a “net-security provider.” During Joe Biden’s presidency (2021–2024), this partnership deepened further, driven by shared concerns over China’s growing assertiveness.
Under the Biden administration, the U.S. worked with India on several projects, such as the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) in Nepal, and supported Sri Lanka during its economic crisis. Additionally, the U.S.’s reduced engagement with Pakistan after withdrawing from Afghanistan helped solidify its alignment with India’s goals in the region.
Despite these advancements, there were notable areas of disagreement. The Biden administration often emphasized issues like democracy and human rights, which sometimes clashed with India’s pragmatic approach to regional diplomacy.
For example, the U.S. criticized Bangladesh and Myanmar for governance issues, while India maintained working relationships with both regimes. This pressure from Washington pushed some of these countries closer to China. Furthermore, U.S. sanctions on Indian companies with ties to Russia, as well as concerns over alleged corruption in Indian-led projects in Sri Lanka, created additional friction and challenges for India.
Trump’s second term is expected to alleviate some of these tensions. His focus will likely shift toward competing with China while giving less priority to promoting democracy, human rights, and nation-building. This approach aligns more closely with India’s strategic interests.
Trump is expected to encourage India to take the lead in South Asia, with the U.S. playing a supporting role, which could reduce disagreements between the two countries. Additionally, issues like Afghanistan and Pakistan are no longer significant points of contention, as the U.S. has already exited Afghanistan and Pakistan’s strategic importance has diminished.
For other countries in South Asia, Trump’s policies may bring mixed outcomes. Sri Lanka, for instance, could benefit from his focus on economic assistance and less scrutiny over governance issues as it continues to recover from its financial crisis. Myanmar and the Taliban may also face reduced pressure regarding democratic reforms, though the extent of U.S. engagement with these regimes remains uncertain. Conversely, Bangladesh, which is undergoing a political transition, might experience reduced U.S. support under Trump’s administration.
However, Trump’s hardline stance on China could create challenges for South Asian nations. His administration is likely to demand greater alignment with U.S. policies, leaving less room for countries to balance their relations between the U.S. and China. Additionally, South Asia may face more pressure to reciprocate U.S. investments and aid, particularly in areas like defense and trade.
As Trump assumes office for his second term, South Asia is likely to experience both continuity and change in its relationship with the U.S. India and the U.S. are expected to deepen their cooperation, bridging some of their past differences.
For other nations in the region, managing their ties with major powers like the U.S., China, and India will remain a complex task. The ultimate impact of Trump’s leadership on South Asia will depend on how countries in the region adapt to these shifting dynamics.
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